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Instructions

Assignment 2 of 2:

Nelson Fabricators sells a portable EKG machine. The sales manager requires a weekly forecast of the portable EKG machine so that he can schedule production. The manager uses exponential smoothing with α = 0.30.

Data template:  EKG Machines - Week 2 Assignment 2 template.xlsx

1. Forecast the number of machines at the end of week 17.

2. Calculate the bias and MAD. 

3. Recreate your forecast with α = 0.70. Compare the MAD to your previous answer. Which forecast is better?

4.  Using SOLVER, compute the forecast with the minimum MAD by changing α.  What characteristic of the data directly influences your optimal answer?  Briefly discuss the benefit of optimizing α.

Provide your solution and responses in the attached template, using ONLY the space provided.